A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
